Experiments

This is an experiment to see which prediction source accumulates the most points using a standard scoring system.
* The highest possible score is 1,920 points. Each of the 6 rounds has a max possible score of 320 points.

There are three groups of test subjects:
Predictions generated by automated algorithms, predictions generated by experts, and predictions generated by guessing.

Source 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022
538 960 780 960 840 810
KenPom 1080 1100 1260 890 540
Poologic-LRMCP 1140 1120 930 840 560
Poologic-LRMCPLog 870 560
Poologic-Original 1090 1080 960 870 560
Poologic-Sagarin 1120 1070 940 870 570
Poologic- Vegas 1410 1080 650 890 590
Power Rank 940 1110 1250 1030 500
ESPN Bracket Predictor 1100 570
BetLab 940 780
Jay Bilas 1130 640 730 850
Neil Greenberg 1390 410 880 400 420
Misc Experts* 660 900 710 450
Dick Vitale - 590 710 400
3 Point Percentage 1210 940 610
ESPN Auto Generated 650 810 1250 730 410
Bing Predicts 820 670 720
Public Consensus 770 840 590
Spreadsheet - 510 1190 860 600
Pure Guessing/Jessicca 600 1030 390 1100 1180
Chalk 1000 620

*- Experts used were: 2017- Howard Megdal, 2019- Seth Greenberg, 2021- Pete Thamel, 2022- Seth Davis

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  1. Here is the Pro Box Office calculator spreadsheet.
  2. Go to all of the sites. Copy and paste the forecasts into table.
  3. Go to Fantasy Movie League and get the values for each movie that is available to choose. (Note: see if this scraping can be done by a Python script)
  4. If a movie doesn't have a forecast, look at Box Office Mojo and check on what the dropoff is from week to week for that movie's genre.
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